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Fed Update First Sign of Market Crash Coming?



Date: 2020-09-11 23:30:01

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The Labor Department on Friday said consumer prices shot up 4 10ths of one percent on Friday – bringing inflation in at 1.7% on the year — which is way higher than the less than half of one percent we had earlier this year – in English! Oh crap this is good and bad and we gotta make sense of this! To do so I’m going to break this video down into the ugly, the bad, and the good, and then I’ll share some suggestions and thoughts.

What is inflation? is a measure of the price of a basket of goods. Think of a shopping cart in a grocery store. They grab some cereal, some plane tickets, a new car, some apples, and so on. Every month, they go to the checkout line and total up the cart. When the cart gets pricier, that’s inflation. The problem with this cart is we’re not really using things like airlines and hotels right now, but we’re buying groceries more than we used to. This means that technical readings of inflation aren’t really telling us how much people are hurting today. But that misreading is not even the bad part. The bad part is: what if this trend continues. In august, we had no more unemployment boost and a lot of the CARES act PPP money has dried up. Yet, even without that extra stimulus or even a second stimulus package in august, prices shot up more than expected. This could be bad because of fears that all of the money printing we did earlier is going to translate into even higher inflation soon. More expensive food, daily living costs, and ultimately investors & borrowing rates. In the short term, higher inflation would really hurt stocks and Real Estate. In the longer term, inflation can end up helping stocks and Real Estate, but when you couple an eviction crisis and possible foreclosure crisis after that, you end up with a bad day. Or maybe a bad 2021. This is a change to really keep an eye on – because this just increased risk and this will be felt in the stock market, which might explain why stocks are pulling back. The bad is that all of the above may still happen, but some of it might get delayed. So high inflation meaning highly daily costs and general pain as prices go up. To which usually the fed responds and raises rates. FAIT or Flexible Average Inflation Targeting means the fed may allow higher inflation for a period of a few months or even a few years. Basically, that means they’ll let prices keep going up on groceries and daily goods – basically hurting poorer people. While at the same time letting real estate and stocks keep going up – basically helping the rich people out a bit longer.

Now, technically they’re not trying to help the rich and hurt the poor. But that’s possibly a big side effect of this new policy. Basically, they fed will allow prices to keep going up without raising rates, yet. But at some point they will, and then the negative effects of a stock market pull back, real estate pull back, and potentially the compounding effects of an eviction crisis and foreclosure crisis could come true. There is some good though i’ll talk about my favorite decisions.

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